"That, in turn, may change the transport equation and the energy and environmental impact of road transport.”
The study uses analysis of self-driving technology combined with data on car and truck use, driver licenses, and vehicle running costs to model the impact on energy demand of various levels of automation on US roads by 2050.
It identifies several efficiency benefits of self-driving cars and predicts ranges of likely energy impacts, depending on the extent of adoption of the technology and other factors:
- More efficient computer-directed driving styles (0% to 20% reduction in energy use)
- Improved traffic flow and reduced jams because of coordination between vehicles (0% to 4% reduction)
- “Platooning” of automated vehicles driving very close together to create aerodynamic savings (4% to 25% reduction)
- Reduced crash risks mean that cars can be lighter (5% to 23% reduction)
- Less emphasis from car buyers on high performance (5% to 23% reduction).
But the study also predicts that the very attractiveness of self-driving technology could reduce or even outweigh the efficiency gains.